Fight Week in the USA

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Welcome back to the Bandit Betting Newsletter, where we deliver the top stories in sports and gambling directly to your inbox, every Sunday.

In today's email:

• Election betting markets: set records after ‘predicting’ Trump’s win.

• DraftKings: lowers 2024 revenue projection by millions after getting crushed on NFL bets.

• Fight week: UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones puts his belt on the line against former champion Stipe Miocic. The Tyson vs. Paul bout is set for Friday, Nov. 15.

Let's gamble...

ELECTION RESULTS (BETTING)

“Billions were staked on the presidential race alone this year.”

Kalshi users placed nearly $900 million in political bets, with RFK Jr. currently leading as a predicted appointee in Trump’s new Cabinet.

While platforms projected a Trump win, critics argue that these markets mirror poll trends, which are simply “gambling markets.”

Prediction markets’ user demographics—largely male and conservative—may have influenced their lean toward Trump, fueling debate about their validity.

Some analysts on the other hand view these markets as accurate reflections of investor sentiment and market adjustments.

Election night results showed the mixed emotions these markets stirred up.

At a San Francisco party, 37-year-old tech founder Joshua faced tension for monitoring Polymarket and Kalshi odds, which showed Trump’s rise before networks called the results.

PredictIt CEO John Phillips described similar scenes of both cheers and frustrations as market odds fluctuated.

Regulators continue to question these prediction markets. Although the 2023 court ruling allowed Kalshi to resume political betting, the CFTC is appealing the decision.

One large loss, Eli Wallace, placed a bet of $33,000 on Kamala Harris winning the popular vote, banking on Trump’s past popular vote losses.

THE HOUSE DOES (NOT) ALWAYS WIN

“Sports bettors can take solace in knowing DraftKings is taking home less this year.”

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins revised the company’s 2024 revenue forecast, revealing a slight downturn.

This has been described as “the worst stretch” for DraftKings' NFL betting retention rate.

This season, NFL favorites are performing well, going 74-61-4 against the spread, with home favorites at 61-28 on the money line.

Robins highlighted how unpredictable outcomes can impact results, noting that if recent plays—like the Bengals’ missed two-point conversion or last-minute touchdown—had gone differently, so would have betting outcomes.

He emphasized, though, that fluctuations tend to balance out over time, serving as a reminder to bettors that the house generally prevails in the long run.

Cheers to the DK bettors so far this season in the NFL!

FIGHT WEEK IN THE USA

“Coming up on the largest fight week in the USA in years featuring Jons vs. Miocic and Paul vs. Tyson”

Next week, the UFC brings its penultimate pay-per-view event of the year to Madison Square Garden for UFC 309, headlined by heavyweight champion Jon Jones defending his title against former champ Stipe Miocic.

Initially set for UFC 295, the matchup was postponed due to Jones' torn pectoral tendon.

This marks Miocic's first fight since 2021, offering fans fresh competition after his last five bouts involved either Francis Ngannou or Daniel Cormier.

The event also features a co-main showdown between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler, and a return by rising star Bo Nickal.

Jones' dominance in the UFC is historic, with 16 consecutive title fights. Although his 2017 knockout of Daniel Cormier was later deemed a no-contest due to a failed drug test, he remains undefeated in title bouts.

On Friday, Nov. 15, Mike Tyson makes his return to the boxing ring to face Jake Paul in the headlining match of a seven-fight card at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

The event stream starts at 8 p.m. ET, with the timing of the Tyson-Paul ringwalk depending on the preceding bouts.

BetMGM odds as of Thursday, Nov. 7, have Paul favored at -200, Tyson at +200, and a tie at +900. This marks Tyson’s first fight in over 19 years, bringing him back to the spotlight for a highly anticipated clash at the home of the Dallas Cowboys.

If you’re anything like us - you’re baffled by the idea of Mike Tyson fighting a YouTuber at the age of 58.

Hit reply and let us know your thoughts on this…

(I read everything and respond).

MEME

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